Walmart’s Q3 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel are centered in the 2.5-4% range at 70% implied probability because Q2 results showed 2.6% growth—the slowest pace in years—after a 125-basis-point pharmacy headwind from Inflation Reduction Act pricing changes. Traders are pricing continued unit volume and transaction gains plus e-commerce momentum above 24%, alongside share capture from higher-income households, offset by ongoing price investments and a softer environment for lower-income shoppers. Walmart raised full-year constant-currency sales guidance to 4-5% after Q2, signaling management confidence, while Q3 earnings due in mid-November will test whether the pharmacy drag moderates and whether grocery mid-single-digit trends hold.