**Walmart US eCommerce sales growth for the upcoming Q3 centers on the 21-25% range at a 61% market-implied probability, reflecting sustained but moderating momentum after multiple quarters above 20%.** Recent results showed US eCommerce advancing 28% in the prior period, fueled by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery, expedited options under three hours capturing significant order volume, and third-party marketplace expansion, which together lifted comparable sales by roughly 440 basis points. Global eCommerce rose 27%, marking the seventh straight quarter of 20%+ gains amid broader revenue growth of 5.8% to $179.5 billion. Traders appear to price in a modest step-down from that peak due to a higher base, potential normalization in fulfillment contributions, and competitive dynamics, while still expecting solid double-digit expansion ahead of the earnings release. The narrower 25-29% band holds 28% odds, underscoring the market’s assessment of continued strength without a sharp acceleration.