Trump’s October 31 statement at Mar-a-Lago that he has “no plans to meet” Flávio Bolsonaro, while permitting the defeated Brazilian presidential candidate to remain in the United States, directly shapes the 81.5% trader consensus against a 2026 encounter. Flávio arrived in Florida days earlier after losing the October runoff to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with Trump administration approval of his entry framed as humanitarian parole rather than political endorsement. Officials have confirmed the president currently has no intention of backing Flávio’s claims to leadership or scheduling official engagement, reflecting a pragmatic approach to bilateral relations with Brazil. This recent clarification, combined with Trump’s emphasis on non-involvement in Brazil’s post-election dynamics, accounts for the market’s strong lean toward no meeting occurring this year.