Recent September inflation of 1.9% month-over-month, driven primarily by food and beverages alongside stable core readings at 1.7%, has anchored trader expectations for October near the 1.8-2.0% range. Private consultancies project outcomes clustered between 1.8% and 2.0%, while the BCRA’s Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado points to 1.7%, reflecting persistent pressures from regulated prices and seasonal items despite broader disinflation under peso stabilization efforts. The near-even split between the 1.6-1.8% and 1.9-2.1% buckets highlights sensitivity to final-week food and fuel data, with the November 12 INDEC release serving as the key catalyst that could resolve the narrow probability gap.