Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have driven recent upward revisions to UK CPI forecasts, positioning the 3.5–3.9% annual average range as the market-implied consensus for 2026 inflation. Official projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility now place 2026 CPI around 3.1%, with a peak near 3.75% early in 2027, while Bank of England staff see a rise toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 amid higher wholesale gas and oil costs. September CPI data printed at 3.5%, its highest level since late 2025, reflecting motor fuel and indirect effects. Business surveys show year-ahead expectations lifting to 3.3%, and the implied probability distribution assigns over 87% combined weight to outcomes between 3.0% and 3.9%, consistent with trader pricing of the energy-driven path versus historical base rates near 2%.