With no single actress exceeding 34.5% implied probability, the market reflects substantial uncertainty around any live-action Gwen Stacy casting announcement before the end of 2027. The 45.5% chance that no actor is chosen by then underscores how fragmented trader sentiment remains in the absence of official Sony or Marvel Studios confirmation, guild buzz, or credible reporting on Spider-Man universe plans. Emma Myers leads the named options on the strength of her rising profile and genre-adjacent work, followed by McKenna Grace, while lower-priced names such as Sadie Sink and Kiernan Shipka trail amid questions of age fit, prior superhero exposure, and fan-casting momentum. Upcoming casting calls, script leaks, or studio updates could quickly shift these closely matched dynamics.