Recent Federal Reserve communications and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader focus on the 30-year Treasury yield, which closed near 5.31 percent on October 30. The October FOMC held the federal funds target at 3.75–4.00 percent while upgrading its economic assessment to “strong,” leaving markets pricing roughly 70 percent odds of a December hike. Persistent core PCE pressures near 3.6 percent, combined with heavy Treasury supply and a widening term premium, have lifted long-end yields from year-earlier levels around 4.65 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the November employment report, October CPI, and the December FOMC meeting with fresh projections, all of which could shift expectations for the path of policy rates and the compensation investors demand for duration risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions