Recent polling and forecasts show a national environment favoring Democrats, which has limited the impact of Texas’s 2025 redistricting that aimed to convert several Democratic-leaning districts into Republican seats. Key South Texas races such as TX-15, TX-34, and TX-35 remain toss-ups or lean Democratic in multiple models, while most of the state’s 38 districts stay safely in one party’s column. With Republicans currently holding a 24-13 edge, trader consensus clusters around 12–14 Democratic seats because outcomes hinge on turnout among Hispanic voters and the final margins in three to four competitive districts. Late shifts in economic sentiment or turnout could separate the probabilities among these closely priced outcomes before November 3.