Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, centered on the US-Iran conflict and risks to Strait of Hormuz flows, remain the dominant driver of WTI pricing, though recent Qatari-brokered diplomatic talks have eased some risk premiums and contributed to a pullback from recent highs near $104. As of November 2, 2026, WTI trades near $100–102 per barrel amid OPEC+’s decision to hold December production targets unchanged, supporting a backwardated curve and lean inventories. US midterm elections on November 3 introduce policy uncertainty, while the November 29 OPEC+ ministerial meeting will address 2027 baselines amid forecasts of potential supply recovery. Elevated refining margins and modest global demand growth further shape near-term balances.