Google leads trader sentiment in the text-to-video AI market at 70% implied probability, driven by Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash topping multiple October 2026 blind-preference leaderboards and user-vote arenas with the highest Elo scores for prompt adherence, audio integration, and overall quality. Recent platform shifts, including the retirement of Veo 3.1 previews on the Gemini API in favor of Omni models, have consolidated Google's position through broader access in Gemini apps and Flow. Contenders such as Alibaba’s Wan 3.0 and ByteDance’s Seedance 2.5 maintain mid-40s probabilities on select long-clip and motion benchmarks, while MiniMax H3 benefits from open-weights availability. Lower odds for OpenAI, Runway, and others reflect Sora’s discontinuation and shifting competitive dynamics ahead of the December resolution.