Recent midterm election dynamics and bipartisan congressional frustration over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s handling of the Iran conflict, war powers compliance, and oversight relations have positioned him as the leading target for House impeachment proceedings as early as the lame-duck session. Traders assign him the highest probability given Democratic expectations of gaining the chamber and explicit statements from leaders prioritizing his removal. Lower odds for Donald Trump reflect limited appetite for a third symbolic effort despite past proceedings, while Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito face structural barriers from Senate thresholds and historical precedent. Other cabinet figures such as Howard Lutnick and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draw attention mainly through association with broader oversight plans but lack comparable momentum. The “Nobody” outcome captures uncertainty around achieving both House passage and Senate conviction by the 2027 deadline.