Ongoing Israeli airstrikes, artillery fire, and demolitions in southern Lebanon through late October 2026 continue to shape trader assessments of further military action. US-brokered talks in Florida produced no breakthrough on truce implementation, IDF withdrawal, border demarcation, or prisoner issues, while Hezbollah faces domestic charges over explosives and reports of rearming with Iranian support. Israeli forces maintain positions in occupied areas, conducting infrastructure work amid stalled diplomacy and upcoming UNIFIL mandate questions. These sustained operations, alongside Lebanese political responses and regional diplomatic efforts, drive market positioning on escalation timelines or de-escalation scenarios.