Israeli defense ministry succession remains highly uncertain amid ongoing coalition negotiations and security priorities, with the market reflecting broad dispersion across multiple candidates. The 43.4% probability assigned to no appointment by February 28 underscores expectations of continuity or procedural delays, while low single-digit odds for figures such as Avigdor Lieberman and Gadi Eizenkot capture limited consensus on frontrunners. Parliamentary vote thresholds, party bargaining over portfolios, and any escalation in regional threats could rapidly consolidate support behind one contender. Historical patterns of Israeli cabinets show such appointments often hinge on last-minute deals rather than early polling signals.