Toy Story 5’s $160 million June opening, the second-largest of 2026 behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million debut, anchors trader consensus at 88.5% implied probability for the third-biggest slot. Its performance exceeded expectations for an animated title and outpaced The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million and The Odyssey’s $124.5 million live-action starts. With most remaining 2026 releases tracking well below these benchmarks, only late-year tentpoles like Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Messiah carry meaningful upside potential, though their December timing and historical franchise patterns limit near-term shifts. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’s projected $50–70 million debut further reinforces the current ordering.