Ukraine’s Operation Veles, conducted in late October 2026 by the Khartiia Corps of the National Guard, stands as the dominant recent development shaping assessments of Russian prospects for capturing Kupiansk. Ukrainian forces advanced more than 15 kilometers through underground pipelines, coordinated surface operations and drone strikes, captured over 30 Russian troops, and inflicted more than 100 casualties while disabling the primary infiltration route Russian units had used for months to slip small groups into the city’s northern districts. No additional successful incursions have been recorded since the operation. Russian forces continue limited attempts to approach from the east and maneuver through nearby villages such as Radkivka and Holubivka to maintain pressure, yet Ukrainian units retain overall control of the city and work to isolate remaining dispersed Russian elements. These battlefield dynamics directly inform trader evaluations of timelines for any potential Russian seizure of the Oskil River hub.