Ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, stemming from the February 2026 escalation between Iran and U.S.-aligned forces, has kept commercial traffic severely restricted through October 31. AIS-visible transits averaged just 3–4 vessels daily in late October versus a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–85, with oil flows reported at 40–80% of normal levels amid persistent attacks, mines, and Iranian claims of control. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 15 times peacetime rates, reflecting sustained maritime risk and deterring normalized routing. Trader consensus at 100% for “No” embeds these verified disruptions and the absence of any de-escalation agreement by the resolution date, though tail risks such as abrupt Qatari-mediated ceasefire terms or intensified U.S. enforcement could theoretically alter flows in a narrow post-deadline window.