Ukrainian forces have gained momentum in the Lyman sector through Operation Vivaldi, a counteroffensive that has cleared Russian positions west of the Zherebets River and established footholds on the eastern bank near Terny. Recent mapping from multiple open-source analysts and statements from President Zelensky confirm Ukrainian advances and territorial recaptures in northern Donetsk, reversing earlier Russian gains from 2024–2025 aimed at Sloviansk. These developments have slowed Russian offensive tempo across Donbas while exposing Russian lines to further pressure. Trader pricing around 35% for re-entry by December 31 reflects the pace of these gains alongside the logistical and manpower constraints of sustaining river crossings and holding contested settlements. Scheduled diplomatic contacts in early November and localized ceasefires elsewhere on the front could influence resource allocation, though frontline fighting near Terny remains the decisive variable for near-term resolution.