Ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions, including a February 2026 resumption of strikes and fragile ceasefires, combined with Iranian missile activity and air-defense alerts, sustain elevated risk assessments for the Tehran FIR. EASA has extended its full avoidance bulletin through November 16, 2026, while the FAA prohibition runs to October 2027; multiple national regulators align with these measures, leaving Iran's formally open airspace commercially unusable for most international carriers. Recent NOTAMs for live-fire exercises near the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions restricting Iranian airlines have reinforced trader focus on escalation windows around U.S. midterms. These factors underpin the market's implied probabilities for a qualifying general closure by December 31, with resolution hinging on whether Tehran issues a broad suspension applicable to transiting commercial flights.