Recent developments indicate stalled progress toward a comprehensive Hormuz Agreement, with ongoing Iran-Oman talks on transit lanes and fees failing to yield a qualifying US-backed resolution before the midterm deadline. Persistent enforcement of maritime restrictions, unresolved questions over sovereignty and revenue sharing, and the collapse of earlier memoranda have reinforced the low likelihood of an accord that would trigger conditional Senate outcomes. Traders price the no-agreement resolution at 96 percent, reflecting the absence of announced breakthroughs in the past month amid competing priorities in nuclear discussions and regional security. A last-minute diplomatic announcement or escalation compelling rapid concessions could still alter positioning, though such shifts remain constrained by procedural timelines and institutional requirements.