Ongoing Iran-US tensions stemming from the 2026 conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted for over eight months, with AIS-visible transits averaging around 8 per day—roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels—according to live monitoring and IMF PortWatch data through late October. Iranian authorities continue to assert control, demand permits and fees for passage, and conduct surveillance or strikes on non-compliant vessels, while US naval coordination supports only limited movements amid elevated risks including projectiles and reported incidents. Recent diplomatic signals, including Iranian offers via Qatar to restore flows within days if US conditions are met, have not produced agreement, leaving oil prices elevated near $113 per barrel and ship operators rerouting or idling. These sustained barriers and absence of verified normalization steps underpin trader consensus against full recovery by year-end.