US officials assess that Chinese military readiness shortfalls, stemming from ongoing anti-corruption purges in the People's Liberation Army, make a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan before 2028 improbable despite Beijing's 2027 planning benchmark. This view aligns with Taiwan's reports on persistent gaps in PLA logistics, multi-axis landing capacity, and sustained air-sea superiority. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including naval deployments and aerial sorties through late October 2026, reflect continued pressure tactics rather than imminent conflict. Traders assign 98.2% probability to no invasion by year-end because the remaining window is brief and structural barriers remain high. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises, sudden shifts in cross-strait diplomacy, or rapid PLA mobilization could still alter outcomes.