The Iranian regime’s survival odds at 73% reflect the continued cohesion of its security apparatus, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has suppressed recent protests and prevented institutional fractures despite severe external and domestic pressures. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 and installed his son Mojtaba, the leadership has maintained control through coordinated crackdowns, internet restrictions, and arrests during October 2026 unrest driven by currency collapse, inflation, and economic contraction. Ongoing Qatari-mediated talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, alongside renewed military readiness statements, underscore a pattern of resilience rather than imminent breakdown. Traders price in this track record of elite unity and opposition fragmentation over the next 14 months, consistent with assessments that military degradation alone has not triggered the defections or coordinated challenge needed for collapse before 2028.