Ongoing diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran, including recent Qatari-mediated exchanges and a U.S. vice-presidential letter proposing renewed talks, remain at the preliminary framework stage focused on ceasing hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and limited sanctions relief. IAEA Board findings of Iranian safeguards noncompliance, reported to the UN Security Council in late October, and snapback sanctions reimposed in 2025 have reinforced divisions, with U.S. statements stressing accountability under the NPT while Russia and China oppose further Council action. Negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear accord are slated for up to 60 days under recent memoranda, yet no verified final text exists that would trigger a binding UNSC endorsement before year-end. These factors sustain trader consensus around a low probability of resolution by the deadline.