Iran maintains firm administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with its position since 1971, while the UAE continues to assert historical sovereignty claims and advocates resolution through bilateral talks or referral to the International Court of Justice. In late October 2026, Iran condemned a joint UAE-Canada statement reiterating those claims and an Arab League foreign ministers' decision renewing support for UAE positions, including criticism of Iranian infrastructure projects and military drills on the islands. US strikes during the 2026 Iran conflict damaged some military facilities on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb but produced no shift in control. Diplomatic exchanges at the UN General Assembly in September 2026 highlighted the impasse, with Iran rejecting negotiations on sovereignty as a non-issue. These patterns sustain trader consensus around low near-term probability of altered control absent major escalation or enforcement mechanisms.