Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including risks to Strait of Hormuz flows and supply disruptions from Iran-related conflicts, have fueled a sharp October rally in crude benchmarks, with WTI advancing over 15% to near $104 per barrel and Brent exceeding $117. These developments have tightened global inventories and supported refining margins, yet prices remain 25-30% below the 2008 all-time high near $147. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities to hitting fresh records by year-end or early 2027, reflecting uncertainty over OPEC+ output decisions, potential demand softness in China, and resilient U.S. production. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, U.S. jobs data, and any escalation or de-escalation in regional supply risks that could alter the risk premium embedded in futures.