Recent Houthi missile strikes on Aden airport, coast guard facilities, and the presidential palace complex in late October have escalated tensions without a ground advance into the government-held southern port city. Renewed fighting since the group's September offensive has shifted control of Red Sea coastal areas and Bab al-Mandeb access, raising risks to shipping lanes and global energy markets while the Saudi-backed administration maintains defensive positions. Market-implied odds reflect limited near-term breach probability, influenced by Houthi ballistic capabilities, coalition airstrikes, and humanitarian disruptions that could accelerate or constrain further moves. Traders monitor Saudi responses, potential UN-mediated pauses, and any expansion of Iranian-backed support as key swing factors ahead of year-end resolution thresholds.