Ongoing tensions from the Iran conflict that began in February 2026 continue to shape regional dynamics, with Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and interception of related attacks by Kuwaiti air defenses. Kuwait has publicly condemned Iranian aggression at the UN, citing violations of sovereignty, while detaining several IRGC-linked individuals in a maritime infiltration attempt near Bubiyan Island in October. Recent high-level diplomatic visits to Tehran by Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials aim to de-escalate and promote dialogue ahead of U.S. midterms and Israeli elections. These developments, alongside maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and proxy actions, drive trader assessments of escalation risks without evidence of preparations for a full ground invasion.