Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon amid a fragile post-April 2026 ceasefire, with recent operations targeting areas near Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun while drones operate over Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah has relocated assets and rebuilt capabilities in Beirut, prompting Israeli warnings of naval or aerial strikes on the capital and potential blockades if the group joins renewed fighting with Iran or violates terms. Diplomatic talks mediated by the United States remain stalled over disarmament, Israeli withdrawal timelines, and border issues, with UNIFIL’s mandate set to expire December 31, 2026. These tensions, alongside reports of specific strikes on Beirut districts in late October and early November, shape trader assessments of the likelihood of escalated military action against the city.