Ongoing Iranian attacks and the broader US-Israel conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels, with AIS-visible crossings averaging 8–13 vessels daily versus a historical baseline near 85. Oil throughput has similarly collapsed, with recent daily flows as low as 2.9 million barrels against a 17 million barrel norm, sustaining elevated Brent crude prices above $106. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for “No” reflects this sustained disruption through late October, reinforced by persistent IRGC strikes, naval coordination requirements, and vessel congestion at anchorages. While a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire could theoretically normalize flows before final resolution data, the entrenched security risks and lack of verified recovery make such tail scenarios remote.