Ongoing indirect US-Iran contacts through Qatari mediators in Doha have intensified in late October and early November 2026, centered on proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address sanctions relief, and reduce regional tensions amid the broader conflict. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated no direct senior meetings are planned, while US statements emphasize diplomatic preference without committing to timelines or venues before the November 3 midterms. These developments, alongside prior 2026 talks in Switzerland, position the absence of a confirmed senior bilateral meeting by year-end as the leading trader consensus at 57 percent. Qatar holds the next-highest implied probability due to its active mediation role, though direct talks remain uncertain given procedural and political barriers.