Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 8 per day amid attacks, mine threats, and Iranian permitting requirements. This entrenched conflict underpins the 88.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal through year-end, as elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting costs, and Brent crude near $113 sustain trader consensus on prolonged disruption. Recent Iranian diplomatic signals of conditional reopening within days have produced minimal movement in November (3.8%) or December (6.3%) odds, reflecting skepticism over rapid de-escalation ahead of potential post-midterm policy shifts and continued security incidents.