Iran's governance under Islamic law and the Supreme Leader's oversight enforces Sharia-based criminal penalties on same-sex conduct, with no parliamentary bills, judicial rulings, or policy signals indicating movement toward recognizing same-sex unions. Conservative clerical factions and the regime's foundational principles continue to shape domestic policy amid focus on economic sanctions, nuclear negotiations, and internal security. Traders price near-certainty of no legalization because such an outcome would demand transformative shifts in the constitutional order or leadership structure. Only major unforeseen events, such as a fundamental realignment of ruling institutions or external diplomatic pressures altering core religious policy, could realistically alter this trajectory within relevant timeframes.