Brazilian electoral authorities certified Lula da Silva’s reelection victory in the October 25 runoff by a margin exceeding 4.4 million votes, and the Liberal Party quickly abandoned any formal request to annul the process after initially citing a last-minute nationwide extension of voting hours. Supreme Court and Superior Electoral Court justices have stated that the roughly 35,000 ballots cast during the extension could not alter the outcome under Brazilian law, which requires documented proof that an irregularity changed the result. The challenger shifted strategy toward narrower claims of economic-power abuse rather than voiding the entire election. Traders assign a 95.9% probability that the result will stand through December 31, reflecting the structural barriers in the electoral code and the absence of viable legal pathways. Only an unprecedented late ruling or unforeseen institutional crisis before inauguration could still shift the assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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