Lula’s reelection in the October 2026 runoff has reduced prospects for executive clemency, while Jair Bolsonaro continues serving a 27-year sentence for coup-related convictions under house arrest ordered by the Supreme Court. Recent congressional gains by his Liberal Party allies have raised the possibility of future amnesty legislation, but any such measure would require Senate approval and face likely legal challenges from the STF. Health-related adjustments to custody have already occurred, yet full release before the March 2027 deadline would demand either a successful criminal review or rapid procedural action unlikely under the current administration. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability that Bolsonaro remains in custody past that date.