The judicial annulment of Anthony Garotinho’s 274,411 first-round votes by the TSE in early October, followed by TRE-RJ confirmation on October 15, elevated Douglas Ruas (PL) to 50.88% of valid votes and eliminated the planned October 25 runoff against Eduardo Paes (PSD). This outcome shifted trader consensus toward “Other” as the dominant resolution while compressing probabilities for all Ruas margin categories and Paes victory. Subsequent PSD appeals to the STF, including an ADPF seeking to restore the second round, produced no reversal before the scheduled date, reinforcing the market’s pricing of a first-round finish. Polling had previously shown a competitive head-to-head, but the legal recalibration of valid votes removed the runoff entirely.