**Flávio Bolsonaro, the Brazilian senator and 2026 presidential candidate, arrived in Miami on October 28 after fleeing Brazil via Argentina and Ecuador, defying a Supreme Federal Court order from Justice Alexandre de Moraes to surrender his passports amid money-laundering and corruption probes tied to betting schemes.** He lost the October 25 runoff to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 4.4 million votes. Brazilian authorities have canceled his passports, and he faces potential charges that could lead to arrest or extradition requests once his Senate term and immunity end in February 2027. US visas were issued under the Trump administration, opening possibilities for asylum or extended stay. These judicial and political constraints, combined with his public statements positioning himself as opposition leader from abroad, explain the low implied probabilities for near-term return in related prediction markets, while longer horizons through 2027 remain more uncertain pending further legal or diplomatic developments.